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As Trump touts progress on Iran talks, major obstacles remain

SCOTT DETROW, HOST:

U.S. forces struck missile launch sites and Iranian speedboats attempting to lay mines on Monday. That is according to U.S. Central Command spokesman Captain Tim Hawkins. Iran's Revolutionary Guard says two of its speedboats were attacked in the Persian Gulf, killing four of its men. Iran also says it shot down three U.S. drones. Despite the violence, neither side appears to be pulling back on diplomatic efforts to reach an interim deal to end this war. To tell us more, I am joined by NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez and NPR's correspondent in Dubai, Aya Batrawy. Hey to both of you.

AYA BATRAWY, BYLINE: Hi.

FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: Hi, Scott.

DETROW: Franco, let me start with you. President Trump announced a deal was in the final stages, and then a day later said there was no rush. What do you make of, yet again, another round of whiplash like this?

ORDOÑEZ: Yeah. Trump kicked off the weekend kind of hailing a groundbreaking deal that would be announced shortly. And, you know, of course, Trump's been under a lot of pressure to reach a deal as soon as possible. Polls show that the war is unpopular. And it's also making Republicans worry about their chances in this fall's midterm elections.

Now, over the weekend, Trump didn't offer details about what that deal would be other than to say that the Strait of Hormuz would be open. But what was really fascinating is that one of his biggest allies, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, went public with his opposition, basically blasting a potential deal that he argued would allow Iran to be a dominant force in the region...

DETROW: Yeah.

ORDOÑEZ: ...And even questioned whether the war would have been worth it. He, of course, Scott, was not the only Republican. Trump's former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo from the first administration, said the deal was, quote, "not remotely America First," adding that it looked like it was being negotiated by officials from the Obama administration. That received a rebuke from Trump officials. And yet, by Sunday, Trump was taking or talking a very different tune, saying that while negotiations were ongoing, that, as you noted, there was no rush. And then we had the strikes from yesterday, which the Trump administration called defensive.

DETROW: So that's the U.S. side of things. Aya, what is Iran saying about a possible deal and these attacks?

BATRAWY: So Iran's foreign ministry says this is yet another violation of the ceasefire and that, quote, once again, this exposes "the malice and bad faith of the U.S." towards Iran. And they note that this happened alongside efforts at diplomacy. And Tehran says this is part of the criminal nature of the U.S. towards Iran.

Also, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Force said they stand ready to respond upon the directive of Iran's supreme leader, Mostafa Khamenei, who has not been seen or heard from since his father, the former supreme leader, his mother, wife and child were killed on the first day of this war in Israeli airstrikes. But Khamenei did release a written message today. He said that countries in the region will no longer be shields for American military bases.

DETROW: Franco, let's go back to the U.S. side. Trump seemed to be taking, you know, almost a victory lap in that initial announcement. But is it fair to say this is becoming a trend here, announcing an imminent deal then pulling back?

ORDOÑEZ: I mean, I would say it was. I mean, I took a quick look this morning, and while I'd say this was the most emphatic that he's been about an upcoming deal - I mean, he has publicly suggested that a deal was near more than a half dozen times, dating back all the way to late March when he said Iran wants to make a deal. I mean, he's repeated several different variations that a deal is close, that an agreement was largely negotiated, that a framework exists and that the agreement would be finalized shortly. But then, of course, it doesn't happen. And the reality is that while the president has repeatedly kind of projected this optimism, there has yet to be anything concrete or yet to be anything finalized.

DETROW: And amid all this, Iran's position on these talks has been pretty tough. Aya, tell us what the specific demands are.

BATRAWY: Right. I mean, these talks are just a kick-starter for there to be direct talks again between the U.S. and Iran. So this is only an interim deal. But now Iran has leverage they didn't have before this war, and that's their control over the Strait of Hormuz. And this hardened regime does not trust the Trump administration. Trump withdrew the U.S. from Iran's nuclear deal with the U.S. in his first term, and then wars were launched on Iran during the last two rounds of nuclear talks in June and then in February. And now Iran is demanding what they call confidence-building measures due to that distrust, Scott.

What they want is they want the U.S. to unfreeze their money that is locked in accounts in Qatar. And this was the focus of talks yesterday in Qatar by a senior Iranian delegation that included the head of Iran's negotiation team and the head of Iran's central bank. Iranian state media say Iran wants $12 billion to be accessible at the start of any interim deal, that the other half, the remaining $12 billion, be transferred during the next 60 days of any ceasefire extension. And they said no agreement is possible until the agreed amount is deposited because of past breaches of trust.

Another demand, Scott, is that Iran wants an end to Israel's war in Lebanon, where Israeli troops occupy a huge part of the south and are fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah. But Israel wants to continue that war, which has killed more than 3,000 Lebanese, according to Lebanon's health ministry. Now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Trump assured him Israel can continue to carry out operations in Lebanon, which he described as self-defense. Israeli officials also tell NPR Netanyahu does not want to end the war in Iran, either.

DETROW: And, Franco, Israel is opposed to Trump's efforts to try to make a deal with Iran. So Trump is now trying to include as part of that deal an expansion of diplomatic ties with Israel and other countries in the Middle East. How would that complicate things?

ORDOÑEZ: I mean, look, the Abraham Accords are seen by Iran as anti-Iran. And it was part of the initial announcement that Trump thanked all the intermediaries, like Pakistan, like Saudi Arabia, who assisted with the negotiations. But Trump also emphasized that their efforts would go further by joining the Abraham Accords, you know, the regional agreement that seeks to normalize relations with Israel. Now, this is not necessarily new. Trump has previously said that any agreement should include a requirement that the countries join the accords. But this really looks to be an effort to entice Israel to accept the deal. And Netanyahu has also faced criticism over the deal.

DETROW: Aya, how have countries in the region responded to all of this?

BATRAWY: I mean, we're talking about countries like Turkey and Pakistan as well. These are heavyweights that can't be pushed into a decision like this that is rejected by their populations just because Trump says so. And while there has been some commentary, we haven't seen any official statements in response to this, which suggests that this isn't something being given serious attention. There was a report in the Saudi-owned Al Arabiya quoting an unnamed Saudi official who simply repeated Saudi Arabia's long-stated position that any deal with Israel is contingent on there being a pathway toward a Palestinian state. But that is something Israeli leaders say will not happen.

DETROW: That is NPR's Aya Batrawy and Franco Ordoñez. Thanks to both of you.

ORDOÑEZ: Thank you, Scott.

BATRAWY: Thanks a lot. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Aya Batrawy
Aya Batraway is an NPR International Correspondent based in Dubai. She joined in 2022 from the Associated Press, where she was an editor and reporter for over 11 years.
Franco Ordoñez is a White House Correspondent for NPR's Washington Desk. Before he came to NPR in 2019, Ordoñez covered the White House for McClatchy. He has also written about diplomatic affairs, foreign policy and immigration, and has been a correspondent in Cuba, Colombia, Mexico and Haiti.