LEILA FADEL, HOST:
For another perspective from the Persian Gulf, we're joined by Bader Al-Saif, a history professor at Kuwait University and a fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. Professor, good morning, and thank you for being on the show.
BADER AL-SAIF: Good morning.
FADEL: So as we heard, President Trump is threatening a, quote, "crushing economic operation" against Iran and warned of, quote, "tremendous economic consequences" for countries that grant a lifeline - economic lifeline to the country. What does that mean for Gulf U.S. allies that do have deep economic ties with Iran, given that they're neighbors?
AL-SAIF: Well, whether it's the economic option or the military option, we need to step back, Leila, and look at the big picture. What's happening here is that we've been witnessing the birth pangs of a new Middle East. Everyone is trying to vie for their best interests. And the open question is, what shape will this new Middle East take, and whose order will prevail? Will it be the Israeli order? Will it be the Iranian order? How about the Gulf states and the Arab states? Where does Turkey stand in all of this? And where is the U.S. and the U.S. footprint? How about the new rules of engagement that are going to come through, the red lines and the deterrence levels?
All these issues really predate the current war. It's not only about a changing U.S. posture in the Middle East, but a Middle East influx, especially since the Arab protests of 2011. They've continued in waves ever since. The protests and the ongoing conflict are really symptoms of these birth pangs. And what's happening in the Middle East is, you know, part of what's happening in the larger world.
I mean, let's not exceptionalize the Middle East. The world isn't doing well either. The year 2025, according to the Peace Research Institute, witnessed the highest level of conflict since World War II, with 65 active state-based conflicts. So really, a global reset is overdue.
FADEL: You say there's a global reset, that a new Middle East is being born. What type of Middle East are you seeing being born? I mean, I want to ask about whether the U.S. is losing its influence in the region. I'm thinking of the Mecca Pact. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan - they've signed a mutual defense pact. Are they starting to try to figure out an alternative to having the U.S. as a security ally, given that it means they're getting bombed by Iran?
AL-SAIF: Indeed, all of this is taken into account, and I think what's happening here is a realization in the region that old tools don't really work. Let's look at sanctions. Look at U.S. sanctions. Since the year 2000, we've had 900 sanctions by the U.S., and they've grown to 9,400 in 2021. How effective have they been? They've only led to more resilience across various parts of the world and especially in the case of Iran.
And when you do institute such a policy, whether it's military, you know, warfare or it's economic sanctions, how is it going to change the behavior on the ground? If it's not tied to an economic - to a diplomatic - sorry - off-ramp, you're not going to get much results out of it. And that's how the Gulf Arab states are now looking at this. We can't only count on the U.S. to do our bidding. We need to also introduce our own measures, such as the Mecca Pact that you've raised, and to go more independent to also deal with the U.S. and deal with other partners in the world, including, by the way, Iran. We can't discount all of this.
You know what's interesting, Leila? During the war, the only country in the Gulf that severed relations by dropping the ambassador or asking him to be persona non grata was the UAE. All the other Iranian ambassadors remain in Gulf capitals. So there is - despite all these attacks...
FADEL: So the UAE is an outlier in the Gulf right now. I mean, we saw that they're also suspending trade with Iran. But will other Gulf allies follow suit?
AL-SAIF: Look, if you look at the Gulf playbook, you know, these are agile, nimble states. So they'll go with what's most interesting to them and what advances their national interest. If it's trying to change behavior on the ground, they'll try to mix both economic and other solutions as they go forward. But, look, as I said, we're going through new uncharted terrain, and we're building a new narrative, if you may, and a new kind of rulebook. So that's going to open up different scenarios up front.
FADEL: A lot of uncertainty. Bader Al-Saif is a specialist in the Arabian Peninsula and a professor at Kuwait University. Thank you so much for joining us.
AL-SAIF: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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