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Ceasefires in Iran, Lebanon and Gaza are interconnected — and fraying

SACHA PFEIFFER, HOST:

President Trump huddled today with top advisers at the White House to decide whether to accept a deal with Iran aimed at ending the war. For now, the Middle East officially has ceasefires in three separate conflicts - Iran, Lebanon and Gaza. But there is still fighting going on in all three. NPR's Greg Myre is following this from Tel Aviv and is on the line now. Hi, Greg.

GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Sacha.

PFEIFFER: What is the president saying so far about the possibility of a deal?

MYRE: Well, Trump summarized the proposal on Truth Social, and he cited many familiar demands - no nuclear weapon for Iran, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. And he said the U.S. would lift its blockade of the strait as well. Now, he promised a final determination, but Iranian officials say there is no agreement - that they haven't signed off on it, so Trump's word alone probably won't be enough. And meanwhile, we're seeing how fragile the current ceasefire is. The U.S. and Iran have had back-and-forth attacks throughout the week. The U.S. said it shot down Iranian drones threatening U.S. ships. Iran fired a missile at a U.S. military base in Kuwait, which was shot down. So the current ceasefire has been in place for nearly two months now, and it's been mostly holding. But this week was a very strong example of how vulnerable the truce remains, especially if there's no diplomatic breakthrough.

PFEIFFER: Greg, shifting to Lebanon, the situation between Israel and Hezbollah looks even more volatile. Tell us about that.

MYRE: Yeah. Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, traveled to Israel's northern border with Lebanon today, and he praised Israeli troops for, as he said, striking Hezbollah relentlessly. He went on to say keep going with great success until the mission is complete. So he certainly isn't sounding like his focus is a ceasefire. We should note that Israeli and Lebanese military officials are meeting at the Pentagon in Washington today, searching for ways to make the ceasefire work. But on the ground, it just hasn't been holding. And this week in particular, Israel has bombed several towns in southern Lebanon in a stepped-up military campaign. It also struck the capital Beirut for the first time in a month. Israel has the overwhelming firepower here, but Hezbollah has been carrying out deadly strikes with fiber optic drones. The Hezbollah fighters guide the drones on a fiber optic wire that stretches for miles. Israel can't jam them electronically, and they're proving quite deadly.

PFEIFFER: And meanwhile, there is a link between the fighting in Iran and the fighting in Lebanon. Explain how they're interconnected.

MYRE: Yeah, that's right. Iran expresses support for Hezbollah on a daily basis. It - Iran helped create the group more than 40 years ago and says any peace deal must also bring an end to the fighting in Lebanon. So at minimum, ongoing fighting in Lebanon will complicate any deal on Iran, and it's certainly possible that the Lebanese battle will undermine a deal on Iran. We could certainly see a scenario where Iran refuses to sign off on agreement until it's convinced that the fighting will end in Lebanon. And Israel's Netanyahu says Israel will act if it feels threatened, and it could supersede any regional peace agreement. So each of these conflicts could affect the other.

PFEIFFER: And then, Greg, in Gaza, those two sides declared a ceasefire in October, more than seven months ago, but there is still fighting. What's the Gaza update?

MYRE: Yeah. Netanyahu was at a public event yesterday, and he said Israel's military would now be claiming 70% of Gaza's territory. This would be up from the more than 60% it has today and up from a little over 50% when the ceasefire was declared last October. We've seen Israel wage a systematic campaign against Hamas leaders, particularly those believed linked to the group's October '23 attack that ignited the fighting. The vast majority of attacks in Gaza are Israeli airstrikes. And Hamas says this is a clear violation of the ceasefire and it's one reason that Hamas is refusing to disarm, as the ceasefire stipulates. The diplomatic efforts there have all but collapsed. There's no longer active talk about an international force. There's no serious rebuilding effort. Gaza has really been relegated to the back burner.

PFEIFFER: That is NPR's Greg Myre. Greg, thank you for covering this.

MYRE: Sure thing, Sacha. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Greg Myre is a national security correspondent with a focus on the intelligence community, a position that follows his many years as a foreign correspondent covering conflicts around the globe.