SACHA PFEIFFER, HOST:
So how effective will Trump's economic pressure on Iran be given that the regime has already endured years of sanctions and economic isolation? We're putting that question to Miad Maleki. He's a former U.S. sanctions strategist at the Treasury Department. In that job, he implemented sanctions against Iran and its proxies. He's now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. That's an organization with close ties to U.S. and Israeli national security establishments. Welcome to the program this morning.
MIAD MALEKI: Thanks for having me on.
PFEIFFER: So we just heard Emily talking about how this regime has managed to withstand years of this kind of pressure. What, if anything, could be different this time around?
MALEKI: Well, that's a great question. And you're right. Iran's economy has been subject to, I would say, the most comprehensive sanctions in the history of U.S. sanctions. What is different now this time is we have a naval blockade in place that is putting a physical pressure on Iran's economy but also really accelerating the effect of sanctions.
We also have regional countries that Iran had historically used to bypass sanctions. Those regional countries seem to be taking steps - one step at a time to make it more difficult for Iran to use those jurisdictions for - to bypass sanctions. And as a result of the Iranian regime's own decisions to target these countries such as UAE and Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Oman, and, you know, they were targeted. UAE, for example, was targeted with more missiles and drones than Israel.
So it is that the landscape of economic sanctions evasion. Landscape is shifting for Iran, and that's really making these sanctions and enforcement of these sanctions potentially more effective.
PFEIFFER: So it could sort of be the accumulation and the - at the - over time as well as the collective effort in the region that is creating an unprecedented level of pressure this time around?
MALEKI: That's absolutely right. You know, the first Trump administration, it took that administration about two or three years of aggressive sanctions enforcement to get to a point that Iran's economy was being - really feeling the effect of sanctions, and Iranian proxy groups and terrorist organizations weren't getting paid well anymore. So now, today, things have really shifted for Iran. It doesn't have a whole lot of jurisdictions where it can actually bypass sanctions, such as UAE, which just made a historical decision to cut economic ties with Iran.
PFEIFFER: And how effective do you think the Trump administration may be at getting more Gulf countries to add to that pressure, as well as maybe getting India and China to cut off their economic ties with Iran, so it becomes a real worldwide effort?
MALEKI: Well, I mean, I think I would say the most effective or most important jurisdiction for Iran in the Gulf was the UAE, and Trump administration successfully convinced them - or probably UAE Emiratis themselves made the decision to actually not just sit on the side and continue to watch Iran escalate and cut off those economic ties to put meaningful pressure on Iran.
I think other Gulf states, such as Oman and Qatar, they might at some point feel like Iranians are not serious about putting an end to the conflict. And they make their own decisions to put in economic pressure on Iran. India and China's trade with Iran, they're significantly affected by the U.S. naval blockade. So that's been already targeted. I think Turkey is another jurisdiction that I would look at when it comes to Iran's ability to procure foreign currency.
PFEIFFER: In the past, according to the U.S. Treasury Department, Iran has been able to evade some sanctions and economic isolation through things like establishing smuggling networks, setting up schemes to keep money flowing, these underground operations that have kept Iran's government in in pace - in place. Do you think those policies are working this time around and maybe successful evasion once again?
MALEKI: It has become very difficult for them, again, because of the U.S. naval blockade that is blocking this flow of Iranian oil out of the Persian Gulf. But remember, Iran managed to get a lot of oil out of the Persian Gulf before this naval blockade was put in place and when the naval blockade was put on pause recently. So there's a lot of Iranian oil that is already sitting out in the international waters.
I think Iranians are relying on a lot of these shipping companies and sanctioned tanker owners to still keep that oil flowing to buyers in China. However, at the same time, I think the sanctions that are coming and some of the sanctions that have already put in place have really convinced some of these midsize, small-sized teapot refineries, the small refineries in China, to drop the volume of oil that they're purchasing from Iran. So I think the Treasury Department is going to continue to look into how they can drop or push these buyers to buy less of Iranian oil, which means less money for the regime.
PFEIFFER: Which will mean keep ratcheting it up the pressure.
MALEKI: Right.
PFEIFFER: That is former Treasury Department official Miad Maleki. He is now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense on Democracies (ph). Thank you very much for your time this morning.
MALEKI: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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