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Elections in Israel will be a verdict on Netanyahu's handling of October 7

AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:

Benjamin Netanyahu is running for reelection next week. It's the first vote in Israel since the Hamas attacks of October 7 three years ago and the Gaza war. A major question shaping the elections is whether the prime minister should be held responsible for the Hamas attacks. NPR's Daniel Estrin reports from Israel, and a warning that this report contains the sound that some readers may find disturbing.

DANIEL ESTRIN, BYLINE: One event defines Israel's elections...

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

ATTACK VICTIM UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: (Non-English language spoken).

ATTACK VICTIM UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: (Non-English language spoken).

ATTACK VICTIM UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #3: (inaudible).

ESTRIN: ...The October 7 Hamas attacks. As Israeli elections approach, many here are looking back and asking, did Benjamin Netanyahu know this was coming? In recent weeks, Israelis have learned about warnings Israel received in the months before October 7 that Hamas was planning something big.

SUFIAN ABU ZAIDA: I mediated between Hamas and Israel, me.

ESTRIN: Palestinian negotiator Sufian Abu Zaida told NPR he mediated secret talks between Israel and Hamas for more than a year leading up to October 7. These were talks to exchange prisoners and hostages long held by both sides and to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza. He says when the talks stalled, the leader of Hamas and Gaza asked him to relay this message to Israel.

ABU ZAIDA: (Speaking Arabic).

ESTRIN: The message in Arabic was that Hamas threatened a, quote, "earthquake" in the negotiations. What kind of earthquake was unclear, but Abu Zaida says he relayed the warning to Israeli intelligence right away, just weeks before October 7.

How do you feel now after all of this?

ABU ZAIDA: Very frustrated.

ESTRIN: Why? Your message was not taken seriously?

ABU ZAIDA: Because all what happened in 7 of October is needless.

ESTRIN: All the death and destruction in Israel and in Gaza could have been avoided, he says, if his warning was heeded. Israel got other warnings from the leader of the United Arab Emirates and Egypt's intelligence chief, according to reporting by NPR and other Israeli and U.S. media outlets. Netanyahu denies he was warned. Ever since October 7, he's blamed his security chiefs and the Israeli military for the security failure. Amos Harel is a defense analyst for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

AMOS HAREL: Very, very soon, within days, his PR people were trying to shape the public narrative about events and trying to shift the blame towards the professionals, towards the heads of Shin Bet, the internal Security Agency, and the heads of the IDF. But he never admitted any kind of responsibility.

ESTRIN: For much of the war, Israeli protesters flooded the streets demanding that Netanyahu strike a deal with Hamas to release Israeli hostages and end the war. But Netanyahu said he was aiming for total defeat of Hamas. It would take two years - Israel's longest ever war - before a hostage deal was reached. Today, former officials who worked with Netanyahu say he prolonged the war for personal political reasons. Netanyahu denies that, saying he fought to defeat Hamas. Again, Amos Harel.

HAREL: I'm absolutely convinced that this is what happened. That for political reasons, he felt that if this would move on too fast, then there will be more of a significant public demand for a national commission of inquiry.

ESTRIN: A national commission of inquiry, like the 9/11 Commission in the U.S. Netanyahu has blocked an official investigation. His main challenger in the elections, former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, says if he wins, the first thing he'll do is launch an October 7 investigation.

Today, many Israelis trying to grapple with what happened on October 7 go to one main memorial site.

We're at the site of the Nova Music Festival where more than 400 people were killed. This is a dusty field with a sea of rickety plaques with pictures of young people smiling.

Here, I meet Kati and Meir Zohar.

You guys probably don't remember, but I met you in the hospital on October 7.

KATI ZOHAR: OK. No, we don't remember nothing from - I - all I remember is the horror, yeah.

ESTRIN: I'd met them in a hospital looking for their 23-year-old daughter, Bar. They later learned she was killed at the music festival. They helped build this memorial with other families. The Israeli government didn't contribute any money.

ZOHAR: Not a shekel, nothing.

ESTRIN: No member of parliament called you?

ZOHAR: The Israel government? Nothing.

ESTRIN: Benjamin Netanyahu?

ZOHAR: No. Nothing.

ESTRIN: He didn't call you, talk to you?

ZOHAR: No. Call? No. No.

ESTRIN: What do you feel about that?

ZOHAR: Anger. Of course, anger. We are angry.

ESTRIN: She says Netanyahu bears the responsibility for what happened to her daughter and Israel that day.

What do these elections mean to you?

ZOHAR: It's a hope that something will change.

ESTRIN: What kind of change are you looking for?

ZOHAR: I hope that someone will come and take his place and be the one who trying to keep this country together.

ESTRIN: As Israelis go to the polls next week, some are hoping Benjamin Netanyahu will face a reckoning for the October 7 attacks. Daniel Estrin, NPR News, the Nova memorial site in southern Israel.

(SOUNDBITE OF J^P^N'S "PRIDEFUL") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Daniel Estrin is NPR's international correspondent in Jerusalem.