AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
Homelessness in the U.S. declined last year, and it was the largest drop in more than a decade. To help us sort through the possible reasons behind the good news, we're joined by NPR's Jennifer Ludden. Good morning, Jennifer.
JENNIFER LUDDEN, BYLINE: Hi, Ayesha.
RASCOE: What kind of decline are we talking about?
LUDDEN: Last year, there was a drop of more than 6%. We're talking roughly 49,000 people who now have housing, and the year before that also saw a slight decrease in homelessness. Now, these latest numbers are based on two analyses - one by the federal housing agency HUD and another commissioned by the National Alliance to End Homelessness. They do both find there's still nearly 700,000 people in the U.S. without housing, and that's still a lot more than before the COVID-19 pandemic. But, you know, after years of record-breaking increases, it is a welcome change.
RASCOE: So what do we know about why this is happening? What changed?
LUDDEN: It depends on who you ask, and HUD and homelessness advocacy groups cite different reasons. Let's start with HUD, which touts Trump administration policies like closing the southern border. Devon Kurtz is with the Cicero Institute, and that's an ally of the administration on this issue. He points to several cities that, under the Biden administration, saw a really big surge in asylum seekers who wound up at homeless shelters. And in these latest numbers...
DEVON KURTZ: New York, Chicago, Boston, Denver - that's also the four cities that have driven half of the drop most recently.
LUDDEN: Kurtz also points to cities like San Francisco, which is supporting more sober living options. That's something the administration wants to see more of. In fact, it has tried to overhaul billions in homelessness spending and shift it towards short-term housing with mandated treatment. But so far, that has been blocked by courts.
RASCOE: OK. So that's the administration's view. But how do homelessness advocacy groups read this decline?
LUDDEN: Well, I spoke with Ann Oliva, who heads the National Alliance to End Homelessness, and that's the group that commissions that second analysis. She sees a number of reasons, including the border closing. Also a softening of the rental market in some places. Rents are still high, but they're down from record peaks during the pandemic. But mostly Oliva sees the current system working, with more people getting moved into permanent housing and then offered treatment if they need it. That's the kind of program the Trump administration wants to move away from, but Oliva points to its success with veterans, especially whose homelessness rate dropped more than 7% last year.
ANN OLIVA: Investments in programs like that are much closer to the scale of need for veterans than for any other population experiencing homelessness. That is a really important factor in why veterans' homelessness has continued to go down nearly 60% since 2010.
RASCOE: This all seems like it could be a hopeful turning point. What else can we take away from this latest drop in homelessness?
LUDDEN: There are a couple of things that I found interesting. One - noteworthy declines in places that saw major weather disasters - Western North Carolina and Hawaii. That's from HUD and other groups who move into these places to help those who were displaced and unhoused people get the assistance they didn't have before. And there is one group that did not see a decline, but instead a small uptick - that's people who are chronically homeless.
Now they are more likely to suffer from mental health problems and addiction. It's a group the Trump administration wants to target for mandated treatment and argues that will get at the root cause of homelessness. But for Oliva, the advocate, this uptick shows the need for this group to have more funding for the permanent housing that's working well with veterans and others.
RASCOE: That's NPR Jennifer Ludden. Thanks so much for speaking with us.
LUDDEN: Thank you.
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