As the trade war between the U.S. and Canada escalates, agriculture experts worry that an important nutrient used for farming may become a causality.
Starting this week, retaliatory tariffs from Canada went into effect, placing 15%, 20% and 50 % on various U.S. goods. As of Wednesday, the Trump administration announced bans on some Canadian imports like dairy and alcohol.
Placing tariffs or constricting exports on potash, a potassium-based fertilizer that is widely used among grain and vegetable farmers, may be the next move from Canada.
More than 80% of the fertilizer used in the U.S. is imported from Canada, according to Jon LaPorte, an agricultural business expert for Michigan State University extension.
Right now, potash is protected from tariffs though the United States, Mexico, Canada trade agreement.
"But with the current trade war escalation between the U.S. and Canada, that is now being talked about as a potential target area for either tariffs or simply what we consider an export control,” LaPorte said.
Right now, it’s uncertain what will happen with the potassium resource. In recent years, LaPorte said potash has become a reliable fertilizer for farmers.
“We've seen a lot of back-and-forth movement on nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers,” LaPorte said, citing the war between the U.S. and Iran.
He also said conflicts between Russia and Ukraine have affected exports of key fertilizers.
“Suddenly we've had uncertainty in two of our three major fertilizers and now potassium is potentially going to be a third one joining that mix, making things all that much tougher on producers going forward into 2027,” LaPorte said.
Farmers are already strained as input costs like diesel and equipment rise. LaPorte said bringing potash into the trade war could have dire impacts on the cost of fertilizer.
If that were to happen, LaPorte said farmers could feel the impacts as early as this fall, when most fertilizer for the following season is purchased.
Those price hikes could eventually raise prices in grocery stores, LaPorte said.
“It may not be immediate,” LaPorte said. “When things impact the farmer, it eventually in some way, shape or form it will impact the consumer.”
WCMU's Rural Life and Agriculture reporting is made possible through the generous support of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
