Democratic Party leaders have expressed optimism in their candidate Callie Barr to flip Michigan’s First Congressional District blue. The district is currently controlled by incumbent Republican US Rep. Jack Bergman, who is seeking a sixth term in office.
Barr also ran against Bergman in 2024, where she lost by 21 percentage points, or about 100,000 votes. Bergman won every county in the First District in 2024 except for Marquette and Leelanau counties.
Michigan’s First Congressional District is the largest in the state in terms of land area, covering the entire Upper Peninsula and the majority of Northern Lower Michigan.
Bergman has been in the seat since 2017, and the region’s district has been controlled by Republicans since 2011.
However, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has labeled the district as 'in play', meaning it is a conservative area that could be competitive.
Debbie Stabinow, along with other prominent Democratic leaders, has echoed this analysis.
"People kind of write off Northern Michigan, but the reality is it was a seat held by a Democrat for 18 years," Stabenow told the Detroit News. Democrat Bart Stupak held the seat between 1993 and 2011.
Party leaders are also pointing to Barr out-fundraising Bergman by $300,000 in the third quarter.
“Momentum has been building around Barr’s campaign, prompting Bergman to spend money running negative ads attacking her,” Barr’s campaign said in a release. “Bergman’s campaign spent more than it raised, while Barr banked cash for the fight ahead.”
David Takitaki is a political science professor at Ferris State University. He says that there are three reasons why the Democratic party may be allocating time and resources towards a GOP stronghold.
"The first one is if they believe the incumbent candidate is vulnerable," said Takitaki. "The second thing is that they may be seeing broader national trends that can manifest specifically within districts."
President Trump's approval rating is 36% according to the most recent New York Times and Sienna University poll, the lowest it has been in his second term. How people feel about the president tends to influence midterm results, even though the president is not on the ballot.
"The third piece, I think, tends to be party building," said Takitaki. He says that even though the race may not be successful for the Democrats in the present, changes in the population over time may make the district more competitive in the future.
Takitaki said that while Barr is relatively young and a "more dynamic, charismatic candidate," 79-year-old Bergman has the baggage that comes with being in public life for a long period of time.
"That kind of thing can bring someone to the polls because they're more interested in Callie Barr," said Takitaki. "And, if they come out to the polls for Callie Barr, they're also very likely to come out for Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson."
Republicans aren’t buying it
A spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, Zach Bannon, said in a statement, “Delusional D.C. Democrats are peddling political fairy tales and completely ignoring reality. Retired Lt. General Jack Bergman is a trusted commonsense conservative who delivers real results for Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula and Michiganders are fired up to send him back to Congress.”
State Representative Parker Fairbairn, R-Harbor Springs, represents five counties in the Eastern UP and Northern Lower Peninsula. He has also campaigned with Bergman. He told WKAR earlier this month that the winds are “definitely not” changing to favor Democrats in Northern Michigan.
“I don’t know where you are going to find 100,000 votes in two years,” Fairbairn said. “I’d say Congressman Bergman is going to get re-elected, and he’ll stay congressman as long as he’d like.”
Bergman’s campaign spokesperson James Hogge has echoed a similar message.
Statewide candidates taking an interest as well
Democratic candidate for US Senate Abdul El-Sayed embarked on a three-stop tour of the Upper Peninsula with New York US Representative Alexandria Osasio-Cortez earlier this month.
Two of these stops were in deep red areas. Escanaba is in Delta County, where Trump won by 30 percentage points in 2024. In Dickinson County, home to Iron Mountain, Trump won by 36 percentage points.
In all, 60% of voters in the UP chose Trump in 2024.
El-Sayed urged the Escanaba audience to forgive their family and friends who previously voted for Trump.
“We’ve got to be willing to invite them to a decision they have yet to make,” El-Sayed said. “We have an opportunity to build our country, not just watch it get torn down.”
The last Democrat to represent the First District, Stupak, said El-Sayed could resonate with UP voters.
“Just showing up helps him tremendously to try to connect with not just Democrats but all the voters, even those Republicans who are disenchanted with the party right now,” Stupak said.
Stupak endorsed US Representative Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary election and said he has not decided yet if he will vote for El-Sayed in the general, though he said he will not vote for Republican Mike Rogers.
The general election is Nov. 3.
Michigan Public Radio's Russ McNamara contributed reporting to this story.
