RIO DE JANEIRO — As Brazilians prepare to vote in the first round of the presidential election Sunday, they're weighing sharp differences between the top candidates on security, foreign policy and the environment. But they're also thinking about kitchen table issues.
And if you really want to know how Brazilians feel about the economy, look no further than how often picanha, the country's prized cut of beef, is on the table.
When left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was campaigning for his current role four years ago, he told voters they would be able to afford picanha again if he were elected. At the time, Brazil's economy was still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Picanha, or a top sirloin cap steak, is a marker of prosperity in this beef-loving country.
Lula is now running for reelection in what polls suggest is a tight race with Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula's economic record is among the many issues under scrutiny by voters — and a recent survey found that only 10% of Brazilians feel their income has grown faster than the cost of living in the past year.
Marcella Pirozzi, 44, the co-owner of a Rio de Janeiro barbecue company, says these days she only tries to sell picanha in wealthy parts of the city. In poorer areas, people are "more conservative" about their spending, she says. "We don't get hired to cater events very often due to meat prices."
At his butcher shop on Rio's working-class north side, 37-year-old Arthur Guedes says he's also scaled back how much picanha he expects to sell in recent years. Instead, he's focusing on a more accessible product: hamburger patties.
After Lula took office, a burst of public spending caused economic growth to speed up, though it's now slowing. In the first three years of his term, average wages grew more than inflation. But household indebtedness also shot up, thanks to factors like a boom in sports gambling, easy access to credit lines, and high interest rates.
By this June, Brazilian households were spending 26.6% of their income on non-mortgage debt payments, according to the central bank.
Some analysts say a concept from the United States now applies in Brazil: that of a "vibecession." The term was first used in former President Joe Biden's administration to describe an economy that is not technically in recession, but feels unaffordable.
University of São Paulo economist Laura Carvalho argues the phrase is apt. She says the gap between the economic data and how it's perceived could come from Brazilians making mental comparisons with an earlier period when Lula was president, in the 2000s. Brazil's economy boomed dramatically, and many families could afford items like refrigerators and air travel for the first time.
In contrast, today's economy is suffering from price shocks that didn't exist back then, Carvalho said: "the pandemic, and then the war in Ukraine, and now, with the Iran war." Trump's heavy tariffs on Brazil have also taken an economic toll.
Brazil's voter worries about the cost of living are part of a worldwide phenomenon, according to Carvalho.
"You have incumbents everywhere that are suffering the effects of the price increases of the different shocks," she said. "People look at the price increase and they blame whoever is in government."
Bolsonaro, a senator for Rio de Janeiro, is playing up the idea that basic staples have become unaffordable. He published a video of himself denouncing prices in the supermarket, making sure to name-check picanha.
But he has not given much detail about his own economic proposals. He broadly argues that cutting taxes and government spending will boost growth. One of Bolsonaro's top advisers has praised the policies of libertarian Argentine President Javier Milei, which have reduced inflation but seen poverty rise in recent months.
Lula, for his part, has downplayed concerns that Brazil's national debt might be getting unsustainable. He's announced new measures in recent days meant to address household indebtedness, like a debt restructuring program and ban on online betting.
Guedes, the butcher shop owner, says that only days before the election, he still hasn't decided how to vote.
"I don't see clear strategies from the candidates for how to improve the country," he says.
Pirozzi has made up her mind. She says she's "ready for a change" and will vote for Bolsonaro.
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