LEILA FADEL, HOST:
There are fewer and fewer true toss-up districts. One of them runs through Allentown, Pennsylvania, a former manufacturing powerhouse that is now a majority Latino city. President Trump made significant gains with Hispanic voters two years ago. But polling shows his support among Hispanic voters is now plummeting. What does that mean for this district where the incumbent Republican won by just one point in the last election? NPR congressional correspondent Barbara Sprunt traveled to the Lehigh Valley and joins us now in studio. Good morning, Barbara. Thanks for being here.
BARBARA SPRUNT, BYLINE: Good morning, Leila. Thank you.
FADEL: Now, Latino voters, obviously not a monolithic voting bloc. But one major trend we saw was their shift towards Republicans and Trump, especially among men, two years ago. How did that play out in a blue city like Allentown?
SPRUNT: Well, not as cut and dry as you might expect. Mayor Matt Tuerk, he's a Democrat. He was telling me that even though the precincts still went blue, 52 of 55 were a little more red compared to 2020. And the biggest shift was in one of the most heavily Latino precincts.
FADEL: And how does he explain that?
SPRUNT: Well, he said largely a message from Democrats that just did not resonate with what people were experiencing.
MATT TUERK: People here were saying, I'm struggling economically, I can't afford childcare, rents are out of control. And the message that was coming from the Biden administration was like, we're seeing, like, massive economic success. We've done all these amazing things and it's going to be great. And people were like, I feel like you're gaslighting me a little bit.
SPRUNT: Some voters told me they supported President Trump last cycle because they felt he spoke more directly to their economic concerns. Fast-forward to today, and they're now saying, well, wait a minute, I have high gas prices. I have high grocery prices, you know, what gives?
FADEL: Yeah. I mean, and that's what we're hearing from all kinds of American voters across races, ages, religions. Is there something unique in how the voters you spoke to are responding?
SPRUNT: What I think is interesting here is the idea of the reliability of a voting bloc, and that this isn't just as simple as Latino voters are swinging back to the Democrats and that's where they're going to stay cycles and cycles to come. I was talking to Stephanie Valencia about this. She's the cofounder of Equis Research, which polls Latino voters. Here's how she explains it.
STEPHANIE VALENCIA: A third of Latinos don't see themselves as part of either party. They're voting every single election cycle based on what's motivating their anxieties, how they're feeling about their own personal economic situation.
SPRUNT: Now, this is something that both parties have to contend with. And effective outreach has to start early. Voters told me how, frankly, annoying it is to feel like both parties sort of rediscover how important Latino voters are in the months leading up to Election Day.
FADEL: Now, the economy is obviously top of mind. What else is playing into this election?
SPRUNT: Well, there are two national storylines that I see trickling down into this campaign. One is the way that the Trump administration carried out its deportation efforts. Democrats say this is a major factor for Latino voters here, even though ICE operations in Allentown didn't look like ICE operations in, say, Minneapolis. Republicans, both voters and officials that I spoke with, say that this is fearmongering. And they are focusing instead on another trend. Here's George Rivera. He's the chairman of the Lehigh County Republican Committee.
GEORGE RIVERA: In November, you're either going to vote Republican or socialist. And that's what it is.
FADEL: The trend being tying Democrats to the leftmost part of their party.
SPRUNT: That's right. Like, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's name comes up a lot, other DSA candidates. And he is far from alone in making this connection. You know, like a lot of the things that we're talking about, this is playing out across the country.
FADEL: NPR congressional correspondent, Barbara Sprunt. Thank you, Barbara.
SPRUNT: Thank you, Leila.
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